Hello Hexers,

Welcome to this first installment of my new column at HexPrimal titled “State of the Game”. As some of you might already know, I gather tons of data about the game at Hex PvP Tools, and while raw data is cool, it can also be overwhelming. In this monthly column, I will try to give meaning to the numbers by providing my analysis on trends, and will sometimes attempt to dig a little deeper into the data to highlight some interesting facts.

Trends are only meaningful and interesting when they are compared to past data. With this first report, I will attempt to provide the context in which all future reports will live. As such, we will exceptionally be looking at data going all the way back to January 1st. Future reports will rather focus on the past month of activity and will therefore be much easier to digest. Without further ado, let’s dig into those numbers.

Limited play

Here are the number of limited gauntlets that were run each month.

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
Draft 5021
3799
(-24.3%)
11171
(+194.1%)
6019
(-46.1%)
4661
(-22.6%)
4527
(-2.9%)
8937
(+97.4%)
Evo 10285
6278
(-39.0%)
21669
(+245.2%)
10180
(-53.0%)
8181
(-19.6%)
6698
(-18.1%)
14981
(+123.7%)
Sealed 507
488
(-3.8%)
3470
(+611.1%)
754
(-78.3%)
351
(-53.4%)
433
(+23.4%)
1525
(+252.2%)


state_of_the_game_2017-07_01
The first thing that is noticeable here is that limited play activity fluctuates wildly from one month to the next. It is also very easy, looking at those numbers, to see in which months new set came out. Activity generally declines gradually for a couple of months, followed by a big surge when a new set comes out (March and July). Of the three queues, draft seems to be the most stable between sets, with the smallest drop but also the smallest surge. With the new way ladder ranking is calculated, slightly favoring draft over evo sealed, we can probably expect this to remain true over the long run. Sealed is the most volatile format, with a huge surge on the month of a set release, followed by a sharp drop right after. Sealed being the fastest way to open packs from a new set, we see players wanting to complete their collection fill the Sealed queues at the launch of a new set.

Interestingly enough, in all 3 cases, the surge of activity in July is much smaller than the one in March. This, however, can be fairly well explained by the way sets and chapters rotate. March saw the release of Scars of War, which is the second set of the Herofall chapter. Most of the Sealed activity in that month happened during the release celebration, where players could play with only Scars of War packs. Players used that limited time opportunity to build their Scars of War collection, whereas with Frostheart introducing a new chapter, players will have the opportunity of playing with all Frostheart packs for several months, thus lessening the sense of urgency. Additionally, Frostheart also introduced a new Frost Ring Arena challenge, and one can assume that many players spent more time playing PvE in July than they did in March. I have observed several streamers who usually play Limited that would instead be playing PvE on stream. The introduction of new interesting PvE content, coupled with the much longer period that is available to play with only Frostheart, means that players did not feel compelled to play Limited as much as they did back in March. It will be interesting to see around November if activity at the release of set 8 mimics that of Scars of War.

Those numbers only show the gauntlet runs that were completed. However, while drafts are played asynchronously, the draft portion still happens in a pod. Let’s have a closer look at drafts.

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
Pods 786
647
(-17.7%)
1948
(+201.1%)
1085
(-44.3%)
920
(-15.2%)
869
(-5.5%)
1537
(+76.9%)
Runs 5021
3799
(-24.3%)
11171
(+194.1%)
6019
(-46.1%)
4661
(-22.6%)
4527
(-2.9%)
8937
(+97.4%)
Runs per pod 6.34
5.64
(-11.0%)
5.97
(+5.9%)
5.65
(-5.4%)
5.05
(-10.6%)
5.20
(+3.0%)
6.02
(+15.8%)


state_of_the_game_2017-07_02

The first thing we notice here is that the number of runs is far from 8 times the number of pods. Only completed runs get recorded. Forfeited runs account for the difference between the expected numbers and those that show up. That is why I like to consider the runs per pod statistics, or as I call it, the completeness of a pod. Many players simply rare-draft and forfeit immediately. Some other play a couple of matches, end up with a 0-2 record, and forfeit before the third match. Whatever the reason, not everybody finished their gauntlet matches, and while it happens in all queues, it is much easier to track for draft because of the pods. In order to give players an appropriate amount of time to finish their runs, I only count the first two weeks of the last month, so that players that have not yet finished their gauntlet run are not considered to have forfeited.

In that context, we see that between 2 and 3 players per pod do not complete their gauntlet run. The highest average of completed runs per pod happened in January, and while that value jumped up in March and July, it never got anywhere close to the 6.34 value that it was at the beginning of the year.

On March 30th, Hex introduced a new prize in draft gauntlets by awarding a random rare for a 1-win record. They did that in order to reduce the feel-bad moment of having a 1-1 record and then losing the third match, or to incentivize players with a 0-2 record to keep playing. However, for the three months following this change, players kept forfeiting their gauntlet runs at a higher rate, with the value only going over 6 with the release of Frostheart. If the intent of the change was to get players to forfeit fewer runs, the data seems to indicate that it failed.

Constructed play

To evaluate the activity of constructed play, let’s have a look at how many ladder matches are being played, as well as the average turnout of regularly scheduled constructed tournaments.

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
Ladder 42269
29657
(-29.8%)
42655
(+43.8%)
32339
(-24.2%)
31318
(-3.2%)
21473
(-31.4%)
28732
(+33.8%)
FiveShards Weekly 57.86
68.57
(+18.5%)
77.25
(+12.7%)
61.83
(-20.0%)
48.43
(-21.7%)
44.14
(-8.9%)
55.17
(+25.0%)
Arcanum Vault 65.75
58.86
(-10.5%)
N/A
114.86
(+95.1%)
64.00
(-44.3%)
38.22
(-40.3%)
45.86
(+20.0%)

state_of_the_game_2017-07_03


state_of_the_game_2017-07_04


The first thing that jumps out here is that constructed activity tends to follow the same trend as limited, with decreasing activity as a set ages, and a surge when a new set releases and the meta gets completely disrupted. Participation in regularly scheduled constructed events also mimics ladder activity. It is worth noting that no Arcanum Vault tournaments got scheduled in March, which might explain the surprisingly high turnout in April when it started again, with a return to more usual numbers the following month. All in all though, it does seem that constructed play is on the decline.

Meta

Let’s now have a look at the most popular shards and champions for each of the formats.

Ladder

Shards

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 R
15.6%
(59.0% win)
R
14.1%
(58.8% win)
BW ▲1
16.1%
(54.0% win)
BW
14.6%
(52.0% win)
BW
15.8%
(54.1% win)
BW
18.6%
(52.3% win)
BW
10.4%
(52.7% win)
#2 BW
13.1%
(52.2% win)
BW
12.0%
(54.1% win)
RS ▲2
9.0%
(53.2% win)
RS
10.2%
(54.1% win)
BR ▲1
10.2%
(57.4% win)
BR
12.9%
(59.7% win)
BR
9.7%
(62.3% win)
#3 W
8.9%
(58.5% win)
DW ▲6
8.8%
(53.9% win)
BS ▲8
7.7%
(42.3% win)
BR ▲2
8.8%
(56.0% win)
RS ▼1
10.2%
(53.0% win)
RS
9.7%
(52.6% win)
BS ▲1
9.7%
(37.1% win)
#4 RS
7.9%
(47.4% win)
RS
8.6%
(48.2% win)
SW ▲4
7.6%
(44.9% win)
BS ▼1
7.4%
(41.9% win)
DR ▲1
7.4%
(50.9% win)
BS ▲5
6.8%
(40.8% win)
BD ▲5
8.7%
(50.9% win)
#5 BR
7.7%
(50.4% win)
W ▼2
7.2%
(58.9% win)
BR ▲1
7.0%
(56.7% win)
DR ▲4
7.1%
(55.5% win)
B ▲6
6.6%
(52.4% win)
DS ▲2
6.7%
(47.2% win)
RS ▼2
8.4%
(48.6% win)

Champions

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 Angus the Arsonist
12.8%
(60.4% win)
Angus the Arsonist
11.2%
(60.3% win)
Marshal Josephina ▲2
10.6%
(58.1% win)
Uzzu the Bonewalker ▲5
12.1%
(57.5% win)
Ivan Slagpot ▲2
12.4%
(57.9% win)
Ivan Slagpot
14.9%
(59.7% win)
Ivan Slagpot
8.5%
(65.1% win)
#2 Kagulichu
8.2%
(57.2% win)
Kagulichu
8.1%
(57.9% win)
Ivan Slagpot
9.9%
(58.9% win)
Marshal Josephina ▼1
10.9%
(55.9% win)
Uzzu the Bonewalker ▼1
11.1%
(54.8% win)
Uzzu the Bonewalker
10.0%
(55.3% win)
Dreaming Fox ▲5
7.7%
(48.8% win)
#3 Shoku The Botanist
7.0%
(56.6% win)
Marshal Josephina ▲8
8.0%
(59.4% win)
Kagulichu ▼1
9.7%
(59.6% win)
Ivan Slagpot ▼1
9.7%
(57.4% win)
Morgan McBombus ▲2
8.4%
(54.5% win)
Morgan McBombus
9.0%
(54.0% win)
Papa Goot ▲44
6.9%
(49.4% win)
#4 Winter Moon
6.1%
(41.1% win)
Winter Moon
7.0%
(39.7% win)
Morgan McBombus ▲3
8.0%
(55.3% win)
Kagulichu ▼1
9.1%
(56.1% win)
Kagulichu
8.2%
(55.8% win)
Kagulichu
8.8%
(53.4% win)
Morgan McBombus ▼1
5.8%
(54.9% win)
#5 Yotul Mogak
5.5%
(52.6% win)
Shoku The Botanist ▼2
6.5%
(58.4% win)
Takahiro ▲19
5.7%
(47.9% win)
Morgan McBombus ▼1
8.8%
(56.2% win)
Marshal Josephina ▼3
8.2%
(51.3% win)
Shoku The Botanist ▲1
7.7%
(52.2% win)
Kagulichu ▼1
5.1%
(53.8% win)

Draft Gauntlet

Shards

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 DR
17.1%
(55.4% win)
DR
14.2%
(53.7% win)
BS ▲5
11.9%
(51.9% win)
BS
11.9%
(52.9% win)
BS
11.8%
(54.8% win)
BS
13.0%
(55.3% win)
SW ▲6
10.6%
(59.2% win)
#2 BR
11.4%
(55.3% win)
BR
11.1%
(58.1% win)
DS ▲7
9.1%
(58.0% win)
DS
10.3%
(58.8% win)
DS
9.4%
(59.3% win)
DS
9.2%
(57.4% win)
BD ▲6
9.6%
(56.2% win)
#3 BD
10.5%
(60.9% win)
BD
9.7%
(61.8% win)
DR ▼2
8.7%
(54.7% win)
DR
9.1%
(57.1% win)
DR
8.5%
(59.3% win)
DR
8.6%
(57.1% win)
BS ▼2
9.3%
(44.0% win)
#4 BW
8.4%
(38.3% win)
DW ▲2
5.9%
(49.1% win)
BW ▲1
7.9%
(48.3% win)
BW
7.5%
(50.8% win)
BW
6.5%
(50.3% win)
RW ▲1
7.2%
(56.7% win)
DR ▼1
8.9%
(57.2% win)
#5 RW
6.5%
(50.7% win)
BW ▼1
5.7%
(36.3% win)
RW ▲2
6.6%
(50.0% win)
RW
6.4%
(55.1% win)
RW
6.2%
(56.2% win)
BW ▼1
6.9%
(53.3% win)
BW
8.5%
(59.9% win)

Champions

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 Gorn of the Hell Pits
26.6%
(56.9% win)
Gorn of the Hell Pits
30.6%
(56.9% win)
Ada the Apparitionist ▲14
15.4%
(60.5% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
23.3%
(57.9% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
20.6%
(56.7% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
15.5%
(54.4% win)
Puff the Rainbow ▲13
17.5%
(56.0% win)
#2 Lysander
18.8%
(51.2% win)
Lysander
17.9%
(49.7% win)
Therroz
12.0%
(54.3% win)
Therroz
15.7%
(52.9% win)
Therroz
15.1%
(49.9% win)
Therroz
10.3%
(48.1% win)
Papa Goot ▲11
12.8%
(50.6% win)
#3 Marshal Josephina
12.5%
(56.9% win)
Marshal Josephina
11.8%
(56.0% win)
High Cleric Marzul
8.4%
(52.1% win)
Grandfather Elk ▲1
9.4%
(49.1% win)
High Cleric Marzul ▲1
9.5%
(55.3% win)
Grandfather Elk ▲1
9.1%
(52.3% win)
Yarna of Lost Voices ▲9
11.2%
(36.9% win)
#4 Bloodspinner Zorath
7.0%
(33.0% win)
Shoku The Botanist ▲1
7.1%
(38.7% win)
Grandfather Elk ▲8
8.2%
(50.1% win)
High Cleric Marzul ▼1
8.9%
(53.1% win)
Grandfather Elk ▼1
9.5%
(52.4% win)
Takahiro ▲1
8.6%
(55.2% win)
Cassia Goldenlight ▲12
9.9%
(55.3% win)
#5 Shoku The Botanist
6.9%
(37.9% win)
Wildshaper Kaliban ▲1
5.6%
(42.3% win)
Marshal Josephina ▼2
7.4%
(53.0% win)
Takahiro ▲3
8.1%
(51.3% win)
Takahiro
8.9%
(53.0% win)
High Cleric Marzul ▼2
8.5%
(55.2% win)
Swampbutt ▲12
7.6%
(43.1% win)

Evo Sealed Gauntlet

Shards

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 BR
12.9%
(54.2% win)
BD ▲2
10.9%
(56.8% win)
DR ▲1
13.8%
(54.2% win)
DR
16.3%
(54.4% win)
DR
15.9%
(53.3% win)
DR
14.7%
(54.2% win)
BD ▲5
14.4%
(53.7% win)
#2 DR
12.8%
(51.8% win)
DR
10.8%
(52.4% win)
BS ▲2
12.5%
(50.3% win)
BS
14.3%
(49.3% win)
BS
14.2%
(50.4% win)
BS
13.6%
(50.0% win)
SW ▲7
11.0%
(52.2% win)
#3 BD
10.6%
(56.2% win)
BR ▼2
10.6%
(52.8% win)
BW ▲4
8.7%
(45.5% win)
DS ▲1
10.3%
(57.1% win)
DS
9.3%
(55.0% win)
BW ▲1
7.6%
(46.7% win)
BS ▼1
10.9%
(44.9% win)
#4 RW
8.7%
(51.3% win)
BS ▲1
6.8%
(47.0% win)
DS ▲6
7.5%
(56.9% win)
BD ▲1
7.3%
(51.8% win)
BW ▲1
6.9%
(44.6% win)
DS ▼1
7.5%
(54.2% win)
RW ▲1
9.4%
(47.7% win)
#5 BS
7.7%
(45.4% win)
RW ▼1
6.8%
(51.0% win)
BD ▼4
6.9%
(50.1% win)
BW ▼2
7.1%
(43.2% win)
BD ▼1
5.7%
(52.1% win)
RW ▲1
7.4%
(50.7% win)
DR ▼4
9.2%
(51.7% win)

Champions

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 Gorn of the Hell Pits
23.6%
(56.1% win)
Gorn of the Hell Pits
24.7%
(55.6% win)
Ada the Apparitionist ▲31
15.5%
(58.2% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
31.2%
(56.7% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
26.4%
(55.7% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
16.2%
(55.8% win)
Papa Goot ▲9
15.5%
(52.3% win)
#2 Warmaster Fuzzuko
8.2%
(55.1% win)
Warmaster Fuzzuko
5.8%
(53.1% win)
Bloodspinner Zorath ▲12
8.2%
(44.9% win)
Therroz ▲1
13.1%
(50.5% win)
Therroz
12.5%
(49.7% win)
Therroz
8.0%
(50.6% win)
Puff the Rainbow ▲11
14.7%
(52.0% win)
#3 Uzzu the Bonewalker
6.0%
(49.2% win)
Marshal Josephina ▲1
5.5%
(52.9% win)
Therroz
7.8%
(52.4% win)
Grandfather Elk ▲1
7.1%
(47.2% win)
Grandfather Elk
7.3%
(48.5% win)
Bloodspinner Zorath ▲1
6.4%
(44.8% win)
Yarna of Lost Voices ▲6
9.8%
(43.0% win)
#4 Marshal Josephina
5.7%
(53.1% win)
Lysander ▲1
5.5%
(48.2% win)
Grandfather Elk ▲36
7.2%
(50.0% win)
Bloodspinner Zorath ▼2
7.0%
(41.8% win)
Bloodspinner Zorath
7.0%
(43.9% win)
Grandfather Elk ▼1
6.3%
(51.0% win)
Furiko ▲20
7.4%
(55.7% win)
#5 Lysander
5.2%
(47.1% win)
Uzzu the Bonewalker ▼2
4.9%
(46.2% win)
Marshal Josephina ▼2
6.8%
(52.4% win)
Takahiro ▲5
4.8%
(47.1% win)
Takahiro
6.1%
(50.3% win)
Renner ▲1
5.8%
(49.9% win)
Cassia Goldenlight ▲11
7.2%
(52.4% win)

Sealed Gauntlet

Shards

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 DR
26.5%
(54.3% win)
DR
20.5%
(56.1% win)
DR
11.3%
(53.3% win)
BS ▲1
13.8%
(53.9% win)
DR ▲1
10.2%
(54.2% win)
DR
10.9%
(52.1% win)
BD ▲2
11.5%
(52.5% win)
#2 BR
12.2%
(54.4% win)
BD ▲1
8.9%
(50.8% win)
BS ▲3
10.3%
(50.4% win)
DR ▼1
13.1%
(54.1% win)
BS ▼1
7.8%
(46.3% win)
BS
9.9%
(49.7% win)
BS
10.0%
(44.7% win)
#3 BD
10.5%
(58.3% win)
BR ▼1
8.0%
(54.4% win)
BW ▲3
6.5%
(44.4% win)
DS ▲1
7.9%
(56.0% win)
BD ▲2
6.3%
(56.2% win)
BD
7.9%
(50.5% win)
DR ▼2
9.0%
(52.7% win)
#4 DW
6.5%
(43.4% win)
DW
3.7%
(45.0% win)
DS ▲6
6.0%
(59.3% win)
BW ▼1
6.7%
(41.1% win)
BW
6.0%
(46.0% win)
BW
5.1%
(43.9% win)
RW ▲1
8.9%
(46.4% win)
#5 BW
6.0%
(40.2% win)
BS ▲3
3.2%
(47.7% win)
BD ▼3
4.9%
(53.9% win)
BD
4.8%
(51.4% win)
DS ▼2
4.7%
(60.6% win)
RW ▲1
4.3%
(41.7% win)
BW ▼1
7.2%
(55.3% win)

Champions

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 Gorn of the Hell Pits
22.5%
(56.9% win)
Gorn of the Hell Pits
17.8%
(54.0% win)
Ada the Apparitionist ▲8
12.1%
(58.1% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
21.9%
(57.8% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
17.5%
(58.4% win)
Ada the Apparitionist
8.4%
(51.9% win)
Papa Goot ▲2
11.1%
(51.3% win)
#2 Lysander
19.2%
(52.2% win)
Lysander
12.1%
(49.5% win)
Bloodspinner Zorath ▲2
6.8%
(45.0% win)
Therroz ▲2
10.5%
(53.5% win)
Therroz
7.2%
(45.5% win)
Yarna of Lost Voices
4.8%
(41.5% win)
Puff the Rainbow ▲8
9.5%
(53.9% win)
#3 Marshal Josephina
15.4%
(54.1% win)
Marshal Josephina
11.9%
(61.9% win)
Marshal Josephina
6.1%
(55.0% win)
Bloodspinner Zorath ▼1
5.6%
(43.1% win)
Takahiro ▲1
5.7%
(48.1% win)
Papa Goot
4.0%
(57.7% win)
Cassia Goldenlight ▲2
8.8%
(54.5% win)
#4 Bloodspinner Zorath
5.1%
(38.8% win)
Bloodspinner Zorath
3.8%
(29.5% win)
Therroz
4.8%
(50.2% win)
Takahiro ▲5
5.1%
(48.1% win)
Bloodspinner Zorath ▼1
5.2%
(47.3% win)
Renner ▲1
3.1%
(45.8% win)
Yarna of Lost Voices ▼2
8.5%
(44.6% win)
#5 Wildshaper Kaliban
4.9%
(45.0% win)
Wildshaper Kaliban
3.6%
(53.7% win)
Grandfather Elk ▲9
4.7%
(50.8% win)
Renner ▲3
4.6%
(48.5% win)
Renner
4.9%
(49.7% win)
Cassia Goldenlight
3.1%
(46.8% win)
Swampbutt ▲1
5.6%
(50.0% win)

Economics

Hex being a TCG, the economy and the auction house are a big part of the game. Let’s have a look at how active the market is.

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
Items traded 247k
187k
(-24.4%)
301k
(+61.3%)
203k
(-32.5%)
149k
(-26.5%)
121k
(-18.8%)
236k
(+94.6%)
Plat traded 9.98M
7.10M
(-28.8%)
19.44M
(+173.6%)
10.03M
(-48.4%)
7.81M
(-22.2%)
6.92M
(-11.4%)
15.11M
(+118.4%)
Gold traded 253M
193M
(-23.6%)
234M
(+20.8%)
232M
(-0.8%)
173M
(-25.1%)
124M
(-28.8%)
174M
(+40.7%)

These numbers only include whatever goes through the auction house. Data on direct player-to-player trades is not available. On any given month, between 7 and 20 million platinum is traded between players on the auction house, while between 125 and 250 million gold is traded.

While there are thousands of different items that are traded on the auction house, I will focus my attention on booster packs from the current limited rotation. By current limited rotation, I mean packs from the sets that are used in limited. Therefore, in January, only Herofall was part of limited, so I will only consider sales of Herofall packs, while in March, I would consider sales of both Herofall and Scars of War packs. The rationale behind that choice is that people usually buy packs in the auction house in order to play limited rather than to crack them open.

Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
Packs sold for plat 2184
1914
(-12.4%)
7039
(+267.8%)
3007
(-57.3%)
2661
(-11.5%)
3022
(+13.6%)
5075
(+67.9%)
Packs sold for gold 559
346
(-38.1%)
924
(+167.1%)
526
(-43.1%)
414
(-21.3%)
363
(-12.3%)
525
(+44.6%)

state_of_the_game_2017-07_06


Interestingly, while the number of packs sold for both platinum and gold follow the typical trend of having a surge the month of a set release, followed by several months of downward activity, there is no direct correlation between the variation of the number of packs sold for plat and the variation of packs sold for gold. This lack of correlation can be explained by several external factor, the most important being the value of gold relative to platinum, as well as the platinum value of a booster pack.
Jan ’17 Feb ’17 Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
Avg pack value 174
174
(+0.0%)
175
(+0.6%)
180
(+2.9%)
166
(-7.8%)
153
(-7.8%)
181
(+18.3%)
Avg primal pack value 1672
1608
(-3.8%)
1791
(+11.4%)
1461
(-18.4%)
1236
(-15.4%)
1208
(-2.3%)
1549
(+28.2%)
Gold:plat ratio 237
244
(+3.0%)
229
(-6.1%)
240
(+4.8%)
247
(+2.9%)
232
(-6.1%)
226
(-2.6%)

state_of_the_game_2017-07_07
state_of_the_game_2017-07_05

While the average platinum value of a pack fluctuates over time, it is not correlated, or very little, with the release of new sets. The value of Scars of War packs at release was barely more than Herofall on its last month. The value of gold seems slightly correlated to new set releases, presumably because a new set brings new chests that people want to spin in the Wheels of Fate. Kismet’s reserves packs also have an influence on the value of gold, however, those rotate much more frequently than PvP sets, and will therefore disrupt the value of gold in between sets.

I included the average value of primal packs because I think it shows some interesting things. While the value of booster packs is not correlated with new sets, the value primal packs seems to be. When a new set launches, the constructed meta is very unstable, and most rare and legendary cards have some potential of being playable, therefore having value. Players wanting to complete their playset rapidly might be tempted to buy primal packs as the expected value of the content of a primal pack is usually higher than the price paid. As a set gets older, the meta stabilizes and the average value of a random rare card gets lower, which brings down the value of a primal pack.

Popular cards

Let’s conclude by having a look at the most popular cards on the auction house.

Most traded card (for platinum)

Mar ’17 Apr ’17 May ’17 Jun ’17 Jul ’17
#1 Deathseeker
862
Copycat
472 ▲108
Lazgar’s Vengeance
260 ▲2
Deathseeker
235 ▲2
Fever Bloom
854 –
#2 Intrepid Conjurer
818
Commander P.R.O.M.P.T.
455 ▲45
Commander P.R.O.M.P.T.
253 –
Ayotochi Coins
197 ▲55
Sapphire Ice
761 –
#3 Strangle
792
Lazgar’s Vengeance
348 ▲12
Deathseeker
238 ▲2
Lazgar’s Vengeance
186 ▼2
Spiraling End
704 –
#4 Righteous Outlaw
750
Warpsteel Shardsworn
343 ▲5
Well of Retribution
236 ▲8
Well of Cunning
181 ▲5
Blood Ice
653 –
#5 Graven Geist
711
Deathseeker
339 ▼4
Consult the Talon
229 ▲1
Commander P.R.O.M.P.T.
177 ▼3
Violet’s Caress
607 –
#6 Llama Herder
668
Consult the Talon
327 ▲19
Deny
227 ▲5
Well of Savagery
167 ▲2
Runebind
607 –
#7 Moon’ariu Sharpshooter
662
Herofall
319 ▲25
Underworld Crusader
212 ▲3
Well of Retribution
166 ▼3
Bounty of the Magus
602 –
#8 Zorath’s Rectory
661
Llama Herder
309 ▼2
Well of Savagery
207 ▲15
Herofall
166 ▲10
Cult of the Nameless City
599 –
#9 Warpsteel Shardsworn
622
Empress of Ice
300 ▲143
Well of Cunning
207 ▲4
Underworld Crusader
162 ▼2
Scion of Lyvaanth
559 –
#10 Rotpaw Gang
621
Underworld Crusader
294 ▲15
Well of Conquest
202 ▲7
Well of Conquest
156 –
Light the Votives
538 –


Note that the above table only lists cards. Every month, the most sold item is Treasure Chest. Unfortunately, Hex’s data does not allow to differentiate between chests of different sets or of different rarity, so it is impossible to narrow down the sale of chests. Also, every month, the number of booster packs of the current limited rotation, as well as Rare Stardust, is always several times higher than the first card.

This wraps up my first report on the state of the game. Come back next month for a hopefully much shorter update to see how those numbers evolve.

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Software engineer, analyst and data enthusiast, Fred runs Hex PvP Tools, providing the community with a valuable tool that collects and aggregates all the data provided by the Hex server API and displays it in a digestable manner.

1 COMMENT

  1. The most traded cards for the last month is interesting as many of the cards are for FRA. I think the new arena has heavily influenced a lot of the numbers.

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